DETROIT — This is the time of year when the eerie quiet turns to chatter, and the chatter eventually turns to tangible noise. The Detroit Tigers he yet to make a substantial move this offseason. Officials across the sport will tell you that just because you don’t hear about it doesn’t mean there isn’t work going on behind the scenes.
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In the case of the Tigers, the industry will be gossiping about the possibility of a Tarik Skubal trade next week, when MLB begins its Winter Meetings in Orlando. So far, though, there’s no indication the Tigers are proactively attempting to move Skubal. They might listen to offers, but the odds of the back-to-back Cy Young Award winner beginning next season in Detroit feel higher than they did even after the final pitch of the Tigers’ postseason.
Skubal is a free agent after next season and the type of talent who could still turn the MLB offseason on its head. But for now, talk of such a move is nothing more than sheer speculation. The Tigers head to Orlando likely focused on more tangible issues. Here are a few of their biggest:
Finding a starterWe know the Tigers are prioritizing pitching, but how will that materialize? The Tigers pursued Ryan Helsley as a starter, only to watch him sign with the Orioles as a closer. They he been linked to Michael King since the start of the offseason, but King will likely he a long line of suitors. The Tigers he five starters in place — Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Reese Olson and Troy Melton — plus some depth in Keider Montero and Sawyer Gipson-Long. They used 15 starting pitchers last season (bullpen days included), and thus need at least one more proven pitcher to add to their mix.
There is a real argument — especially if the Tigers plan to keep Skubal and win with him — the team should pursue a true frontline starter to pair with Skubal. Top-end left-handers such as Framber Valdez (projected to receive seven years and $196 million) and Ranger Suárez (projected at six years, $153 million) could help the Tigers vanquish the left-handed lineup of the division rival Cleveland Guardians. The Tigers he historically sought shorter-term deals, hoping to help pitchers unlock greater performance. If they do not pursue Valdez or Suárez, and if they can’t get King to Detroit, the Tigers could end up shopping in the middle part of the market, which can amount to a roll of the dice.
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Keep in mind, though, the Tigers are adept at moving in silence. Nearly all the offseason signings in the Scott Harris era dodged the rumble of the sport’s rumor mill. After missing on Helsley, is there another reliever who could move to the rotation? Brad Keller, who had a 2.07 ERA and 69 2/3 innings with the Cubs last season, is one name the industry likes.
Brad Keller could be an option to move from the bullpen to the rotation. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)The pitching market is moving, and it would not be a surprise if the Tigers get a deal done soon. They signed Flaherty on Dec. 20 two years ago. They agreed to terms with Alex Cobb last season at Winter Meetings.
Fixing the bullpenTigers relief pitchers ranked 29th in whiff rate last season. Their 7.71 K/9 was last in baseball. Their actual performance — a 4.05 ERA — ranked in the middle of the pack. Strong as the Tigers might be when it comes to defensive positioning, generating groundballs and suppressing opponents’ BABIP, the lack of strikeouts is not a winning recipe in the late innings.
Last season, the Tigers signed Tommy Kahnle, who was terrific into June and struggled greatly midway through the year, and John Brebbia, who flamed out and was DFA’d in June. Safe to say they can’t afford such misses again.
As it stands, Will Vest and Tyler Holton are the only sure things in the Detroit bullpen. Others, such as Brant Hurter, Bailey Horn, Beau Brieske and Brenan Hanifee, are viable options. The Tigers need relief help, likely in the form of multiple arms who can generate strikeouts.
Pete Fairbanks has been a popular name to at least some in the Tigers’ universe since the start of the offseason, though other teams he also been aggressive for his services. The team and Kyle Finnegan he been clear about their interest in a reunion. Many others — including but not limited to Robert Suárez, Seranthony Dominguez, Luke Weer, Pierce Johnson and Caleb Ferguson — fit the Tigers on paper. It’s unlikely the Tigers would pay a premium for a true closer such as Edwin Díaz, but fixing the bullpen might be the team’s most important issue.
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What to do with the lineup?The Tigers could get aggressive and pay up for a premium veteran hitter such as Bo Bichette or Alex Bregman. That would be the easiest way to improve a lineup that floundered down the stretch last season.
Consider the way this team operates. The Tigers he been loyal to their young talent and steady, perhaps to a fault, at trusting their process and building an organization they hope can become a sustainable winner. For all their late-season struggles, the Tigers ranked 11th in run scoring last season. They did so with a lineup that featured 2,876 plate appearances from hitters age 25 or younger. Only the Nationals, White Sox and Athletics had more plate appearances from such young hitters. Prospects such as Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark, Max Anderson and Hao-Yu Lee are all nearing the major leagues. The return of Gleyber Torres gives the Tigers a quality hitter but also clutters their offseason chessboard.
So is it possible the Tigers simply stay the course and bank on improvements from the likes of Colt Keith and Riley Greene, plus bounce-backs from the injury-riddled seasons that befell Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows? Such a decision comes with risk, including the chance of regression from players such as Zach McKinstry. Good as the Tigers were for much of last season, they finished with a cumulative team WAR of 32.2 — ranking 18th in the league.
If free agency is not the desired path to improvement, there are endless possibilities on the trade market. Names such as Ketel Marte and Jarren Duran check some boxes but would require giving up real talent in exchange.
So far, the team has said little publicly about how — or if — it plans to improve the construction of its lineup.
At Winter Meetings, it will be time for the Tigers to be clearer about what’s next. Might the front office show a new level of boldness or creativity? Or might the Tigers simply double down on belief in their young hitters?