For the past few years, higher education institutions across South Africa, both public and private, he been facing a serious and growing concern: declining first-year enrolments.
While returning student numbers he remained relatively stable, the intake of new students has been steadily dropping. It’s a pattern that’s been building quietly, but its impact is starting to shake the very foundation of the higher education sector.
So, What’s Causing the Drop?
It’s not just one thing; it’s a combination of economic, social, and systemic challenges all happening at once.
The Economy is Squeezing Households
South Africa’s cost of living has risen sharply, from food to transport and rent. For many families, sending a child to college or university has become an impossible dream. Even with financial aid, hidden costs like data, textbooks, and accommodation add up. Many young people are now choosing to find any kind of work just to support their families.
Funding Gaps and Delays
While NSFAS remains a lifeline for thousands, it doesn’t reach everyone, and private higher education students often fall through the cracks completely. Delays in disbursement and administrative backlogs he made many students hesitant to commit early to registration.
Doubt About the “Value” of a Qualification
Some young South Africans are questioning whether studying for three or four years really guarantees a job. With graduate unemployment rising, the perceived value of a tertiary qualification has taken a knock.
The COVID Legacy
The pandemic disrupted learning for two full years. Many learners struggled to adapt to online schooling, leading to academic fatigue, anxiety, and lower matric pass rates. This has created a pipeline problem fewer matriculants ready (or willing) to take the next academic step.
New Learning Alternatives
Platforms like Coursera, Udemy, and local short-course providers are offering quicker, cheaper skills training. For some, a six-month course in coding or digital marketing feels more practical than a full degree.
The Economy’s Role: The Heart of the Issue
When the economy struggles, education suffers.
High unemployment, especially among the youth, creates a sense of hopelessness. Families he less disposable income. Employers freeze graduate recruitment. Institutions face lower cash flow.
It’s a vicious cycle:
A weak economy reduces student enrolments.
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A smaller skilled workforce limits economic growth.
To break this cycle, South Africa needs to treat education not just as an academic pursuit, but as an economic strategy for recovery and growth.
How Do We Turn Things Around?
There’s no single fix, but several practical solutions could help rebuild confidence and accessibility in higher education.
Reimagine Student Funding
It’s time to expand beyond NSFAS. Partnerships between corporates, banks, and higher education providers could open new funding models like income-based repayment plans or micro-scholarships for first-year students.
Start Early: Strengthen Career Guidance in Schools
Learners should be exposed to career guidance and financial planning from Grade 10, not Grade 12. Schools, parents, and universities must work together to help learners understand both academic and vocational options.
Work-Integrated Learning (WIL)
Combining study with paid internships or part-time work makes education both affordable and relevant. When students can see how their studies connect to employment, motivation and retention rise.
Flexible and Hybrid Learning Models
Institutions that embrace online and blended learning can reach more students, reduce costs, and offer greater flexibility for those who need to work while studying.
Align Education with the Economy
Universities and colleges must build stronger ties with industries, especially in growing sectors like green energy, tech, logistics, and entrepreneurship, to ensure that qualifications lead to real job opportunities.
The Way Forward
The decline in first-year numbers is a wake-up call. It tells us that young South Africans are not giving up on their dreams; they’re simply demanding a system that is more affordable, flexible, and relevant to their lives.
Our challenge, as educators, policymakers, and industry leaders, is to listen and respond. We need to make higher education accessible not just to those who can afford it, but to those who need it most.
If we can connect education to employability and economic opportunity, we won’t just increase enrolments, we’ll strengthen the foundation of our nation’s future.