Matchups highlight: Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (at Pittsburgh Steelers). "Indiana Jones" has lived up to his hero billing, scoring 22-plus fantasy points in each of the past three weeks, and five times for the season. He never did either of those things in any of his six seasons with the New York Giants. Now Jones faces a Steelers team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (21.3), including 25-plus to Joe Flacco and Jordan Love the past two weeks. Outside of the big three of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (when healthy), there isn't another quarterback I'd start ahead of Jones this week.
Others to like: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (at Dallas Cowboys); Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (at Cincinnati Bengals).
Matchup to oid: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (at Houston Texans). Before we get carried away with the extent of his 2025 growth, consider that his 58.7 Total QBR ranks 17th among 33 qualifiers, and he has faced one of the easiest schedules of anyone at the position (his opponents he eraged 18.5 points fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks). Nix hasn't been quite as shiny a star as perceived. This week brings Nix's toughest matchup, as the Texans are the league's No. 1 defense against quarterbacks for the season, going by fantasy points allowed per game (10.5), adjusted FPA (minus-5.1) and fantasy points per pass attempt (0.31).
Quarterback Matchup Rankings"DEF to oid" and "DEF to exploit" columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; "Opp.": Week 9 opponent; "Rk": Matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.
DEF tooidOpp.RkAdj.FPA聽DEF toexploitOpp.RkAdj.FPA
DEN1-6.1聽
IND326.5
@HOU2-4.9聽
ARI315.6
KC3-4.5聽
@LV304.1
@LAR4-4.4聽
CAR294.0
NO5-3.4聽
@PIT283.9
@NE6-2.3聽
SF273.5
@TEN7-2.3聽
CHI262.8
BYE8-2.2聽
@DET252.5
@BUF9-2.1聽
BYE242.3
BYE10-1.8聽
@WSH232.1
JAX11-1.8聽
@NYG221.8
MIN12-1.2聽
SEA211.6
@DAL13-0.8聽
ATL200.6
BAL14-0.4聽
@GB190.5
@CIN150.0聽
LAC180.5
@MIA160.1聽
BYE170.2Running backsMatchups highlight: Bam Knight, Cardinals (at Cowboys). Michael Carter's release, however short-lived, signals Knight's firm status atop the depth chart. Knight paced the Cardinals' backfield in snap rate, rushing attempts, total touches and fantasy points in each of the team's two games leading up to their Week 8 bye, making him an ideal, matchups-based pickup in the more than 80% of ESPN leagues in which he began the week ailable. For the season, the opposing Cowboys he afforded running backs the second-most fantasy points per game (28.4), adjusted FPA (6.2) and explosive runs (27), and the third-most double-digit fantasy performances (9).
Others to like: D'Andre Swift, Bears (at Bengals); Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers (at Tennessee Titans).
Matchup to oid: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (at Los Angeles Rams). Now 30 years old, Kamara is in the midst of his most disappointing NFL season. He has rushed for 84 fewer yards than expected and is eraging a career-low 11.6 mph on rushing attempts, per Next Gen Stats, and he has been held beneath 13 fantasy points in each of his past six games. Things probably won't get much better for Kamara against the Rams, one of the league's best-performing defenses. They he afforded running backs only one 15-point fantasy performance (Christian McCaffrey, 27.9 in Week 5), as well as a league-low 0.38 fantasy points per carry.
Running Back Matchup Rankings"DEF to oid" and "DEF to exploit" columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; "Opp.": Week 9 opponent; "Rk": Matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.
DEF tooidOpp.RkAdj.FPA聽DEF toexploitOpp.RkAdj.FPADEN1-6.6聽ARI3210.7BYE2-6.5聽CHI3110.5ATL3-5.4聽LAC307.5@BUF4-5.1聽KC295.6NO5-4.9聽@NE285.3CAR6-4.6聽SEA274.5MIN7-4.3聽SF264.2@HOU8-2.9聽@NYG254.1@WSH9-1.5聽JAX243.6@GB10-1.2聽BAL233.1@PIT11-1.1聽@TEN213.1@LAR12-0.7聽BYE213.1@MIA13-0.4聽@CIN202.9@DAL14-0.4聽BYE191.2IND15-0.1聽BYE181.0@LV160.0聽@DET170.6Wide receiversMatchups highlight: DK Metcalf, Steelers (vs. Colts). Over the past three weeks, he has emerged as Aaron Rodgers' go-to wide receiver, posting a 22% target share, three end zone targets and 44.0 fantasy points. While it would be nice to see Metcalf's usage return to his 2021-23 peak levels, he's getting enough targets to capitalize upon forable matchups like this one. The opposing Colts he had seven wide receivers score 15-plus fantasy points, three in the past two weeks alone. In those two games, cornerbacks Mekhi Blackmon and Johnathan Edwards surrendered a combined 49.7 points on 25 targets as the nearest defender.
Others to like: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (at Steelers); Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals (at Cowboys); Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers (at Green Bay Packers).
Matchup to oid: Courtland Sutton, Broncos (at Texans). Pat Surtain II's pectoral injury, which will cost him at least two games, softens Texans wide receiver Nico Collins' matchup in this game, leing Sutton as the receiver aligned for the toughest assignment in that matchup. Only twice all season has a wide receiver scored 13 or more fantasy points against the Texans (Puka Nacua, 23.1 in Week 1; Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 26.3 in Week 7), and even when including those two, teams' No. 1 wideouts he eraged only 13.5 points against them.
Wide Receiver Matchup Rankings"DEF to oid" and "DEF to exploit" columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; "Opp.": Week 9 opponent; "Rk": Matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.
DEF tooidOpp.RkAdj.FPA聽DEF toexploitOpp.RkAdj.FPADEN1-9.0聽IND3214.8@BUF2-7.6聽@PIT3110.4@HOU3-7.4聽CAR308.0BYE4-7.2聽ARI296.8@LAR5-6.8聽@WSH286.2@DAL6-6.0聽@DET275.4@GB7-4.6聽@MIA263.9@TEN8-4.1聽MIN253.7BAL9-4.0聽@NYG243.0@CIN10-3.8聽BYE232.5SEA11-3.0聽JAX221.7@LV12-2.6聽NO211.6@NE13-2.5聽LAC200.2ATL14-2.0聽SF190.1CHI15-1.3聽KC18-0.2BYE16-0.3聽BYE17-0.2Tight endsMatchups highlight: Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta Falcons (at New England Patriots). We'll see whether Michael Penix Jr. (knee) is able to return for Week 9, but even if Kirk Cousins is forced to make a second consecutive start, Pitts' 27% target rate when Cousins is his quarterback -- it's 20% when Penix is under center -- offers encouragement that he'll get enough work to capitalize upon the forable matchup. The Patriots he had six tight ends score at least 11 fantasy points against them, second most in the league behind the Cincinnati Bengals (7).
Matchup to oid: Tris Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (at Buffalo Bills). He's coming off a Monday night game in which he set season bests in fantasy points (21.9), targets per route (29.2%) and erage depth of target (7.6 yards), trends that make Kelce look like a must-start. This matchup shifts in the extreme, opposite direction, as the Bills are the only team to he not had a single tight end score as many as eight points in a game. The Bills also contained Kelce in both of their 2024 matchups, holding him to 2.8 points in Week 11 and 3.9 in the AFC Championship Game.
Tight End Matchup Rankings"DEF to oid" and "DEF to exploit" columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; "Opp.": Week 9 opponent; "Rk": Matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.
DEF tooidOpp.RkAdj.FPA聽DEF toexploitOpp.RkAdj.FPA@NE1-8.1聽CHI329.9KC2-6.3聽@PIT315.9@BUF3-2.6聽ATL305.3BYE4-2.4聽IND294.6MIN5-2.3聽@LV284.4DEN6-2.2聽@DAL273.4@HOU7-1.9聽BYE263.4LAC8-1.8聽BYE252.9@TEN9-0.9聽SEA242.9@DET10-0.7聽@CIN232.7NO11-0.1聽CAR222.4BAL120.0聽@LAR211.7@WSH130.3聽@MIA201.3SF140.4聽@GB191.2BYE150.5聽JAX181.2ARI160.8聽@NYG171.1