国潮品牌排行榜前十名品牌短裤 Trade barriers and political upheaval: what to expect in 2023

“My expectation is that the trading between different economies in Asia is going to become increasingly difficult, with more restrictions and tariffs,” Cordon said. “This means value chains are going to adapt in a substantial way to this new economic order and develop an alternative to the products and components manufactured or bought in this part of the world.”  

He adds that companies may need to take over the majority of the manufacturing if there are long-term barriers to trade, but those measures would take a substantial amount of time and be costly to implement. Therefore, this would drive up inflation.  

 Although there are signs that global inflation is peaking, Patrick Reinmoeller, Professor of Strategy and Innovation, does not expect pricing pressures to return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2023. “Rising prices may become a new feature of the economy that lasts longer than anyone expects,” he said. Inflation is still at four-decade highs and Reinmoeller points out that governments are unleashing fiscal stimulus packages to protect consumers and businesses from the energy crisis in Europe.  

In addition, some companies are experiencing significant disruptions to their manufacturing in China following an outbreak of COVID-19. Reinmoeller says any supply constraints could intensify inflationary pressure. Moreover, he says consumers who are anxious about shortages may choose to stock up on goods while they are ailable, further exacerbating inflation.   

Growth in consumer spending has slowed in many parts of the world. Reinmoeller says this means companies are unlikely to be able to continue passing on costs to customers. “What they can do is substitute expensive resources with less expensive ones or focus on what is essential to their offering and scale down what is not. We may see a return to more basic versions of products, if not greater frugality.”  

 In addition, he says the cost-of-living crisis “will raise to many people’s attention the overlooked challenge of inequality that could disrupt not only the economy but its capitalist foundations”.  

As firms find ways to reduce the pressure on their cost base, however, Reinmoeller believes this could detract from their focus on environmental, social and governance (ESG) goals in the year ahead. “A recession could hold back the investments necessary to protect stakeholders and the environment,” he said. “That could cost the economy resources that could otherwise be invested in innovation.”