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买电脑显卡重要还是处理器重要 Future of the space economy

In-space manufacturing

In-space manufacturing involves using the unique environment of outer space for industrial production, such as the use of vacuum and microgrity conditions, to produce materials and structures that would be difficult or impossible to produce on Earth. The microgrity environment eliminates forces of sedimentation, convection, and vibration and can be used to better isolate material from containers, which can enable us to study processes and make things that cannot be done on Earth. For example, in the microgrity environment of space, metals can be grown into large, single crystals that are stronger and more durable than those produced on Earth. Moreover, the vacuum of space can be used to produce materials, such as semiconductors and optical fibers, which require a high degree of purity that can be difficult to achieve on Earth. For instance, there is interest in manufacturing semiconductors in space to potentially improve the process and possibly reduce energy consumption by 60%.23

Space companies can make major advances in manufacturing through innovative technologies, including virtual testing, robotics, big data-driven methods, and quality control processes. Specifically, advanced manufacturing including surface engineering, composite manufacturing, virtual manufacturing, embedded sensors, process modeling, and simulation could open new industrial possibilities in terms of design freedom, streamlined production stages, reduced costs, and increased performance.

Advanced technologies, such as additive manufacturing (also known as 3D Printing), in space could also enable on demand manufacturing components and spare parts, reducing the need to launch these items from Earth. For instance, Mitsubishi Electric Corporation has developed an in-orbit additive manufacturing technology for 3D printing satellite antennas in outer space, which could further reduce costs and create more space on the rocket.24

Industry could also realize the additional capability generated by manufacturing parts in simulated microgrity on Earth. For instance, existing technologies such as AI and quantum computing he the potential to simulate/mimic the space environment (microgrity) on Earth which could achieve similar results without leing terrestrial area.25

However, Deloitte’s 2023 space survey indicates that only 48% of surveyed senior executives believe that in-space manufacturing has the required technologies and capabilities for mass production.26 Currently, there are several significant challenges:

Cost of launching equipment into space: Currently, the cost of launching a single kilogram of payload into orbit can reach thousands of dollars.27 Until the cost of the launch can be significantly reduced, it could remain difficult and expensive to undertake large-scale manufacturing in space.Lack of infrastructure in space: At present, there are no facilities capable of supporting the kind of production that would be required for at-scale commercial manufacturing in space. This lack of infrastructure should be addressed before in-space manufacturing can drive growth in the sector.Insufficient legal framework: The current legal framework is not sufficient to address liability, and faults can be difficult to assess and attribute.Replacement: Inexpensive, short-lifetime satellites and reduced launch costs can make replacement cheaper than servicing for some applications.Interoperability: The sector lacks consensus for interoperability and interface standards. Additive manufacturing

Additive manufacturing technology, which allows the creation of complex objects by building them up layer by layer, has the potential to revolutionize how space-related hardware and components are produced.28 This is possible by enabling the manufacture of complex geometries, reducing the need for specialized tooling, and cutting down on production times and supply chain challenges.

Companies operating in the space ecosystem can consider additive manufacturing to help reduce the cost of space missions by simplifying the manufacturing process and reducing some of the need for specialized tooling, thus making hardware production more affordable. Further, 3D printing technology has the potential to enable the development of new technologies, such as additively manufactured propulsion systems and high-performance materials. Examples of companies experimenting with additive manufacturing include:

Relativity Space is using large metal 3D printers to create Terran 1, the world’s first 3D printed rocket, and the first fully reusable, entirely 3D printed rocket, Terran R. This 3D printed rocket is expected to go from raw material to flight in about 60 days.29NASA has been using 3D printing to create rocket engine parts, including injectors and combustion chambers, that are difficult to manufacture using traditional methods.30About fifty space companies are using additive manufacturing to create spacecraft and components for LEO.31 For instance, Fleet Space is planning to launch a constellation of fully 3D-printed satellites.32

However, there are challenges that need to be overcome, such as ensuring the compatibility of materials used in 3D printing with the harsh environment, radiation, vacuum and temperature variations, and microgrity in space, in addition to the control and characterization of the printed materials. With increasing demand for space products, another challenge is the time it takes to 3D print for scaling up production. Additional investment and research may be needed to address these challenges, such as the development of specialized 3D printing techniques that may be better suited for space products and the use of space-qualified materials.

Robotics in space

Robotics play an important role in space exploration, enabling the space sector to remotely operate and control spacecraft, rovers, and other devices to explore and study celestial bodies. This technology has advanced significantly over the years, allowing the creation of more capable and versatile robotics systems for space exploration. One of the most significant examples is the use of robotic rovers over Mars. The Mars rovers, such as NASA’s Mars Exploration Rovers and the Mars Science Laboratory, he been used to explore the Martian surface, study the geology and atmosphere of the planet, and search for evidence of past or present life.33

Robotic arms can also be widely used on spacecraft and space stations to perform tasks such as servicing, maintenance, and assembly. NASA’s Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS), better known as the Canadarm, was used on the Space Shuttle to move payloads and perform other tasks.34 The International Space Station (ISS) also has robotic arms that are used for tasks such as moving cargo and maintenance.35 NASA’s Robotic Refueling Mission (RRM)36 and the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Automatic Transfer Vehicle (ATV)37 he been used to refuel and repair satellites in orbit.

However, declining launch costs and manufacturing costs of satellites could create a challenge for developing robotics for satellite servicing, as the cost of servicing the satellite could exceed the cost of replacing the failed satellite. Nevertheless, retiring failed satellites increase space debris, and on-orbit servicing could be a solution.

Space sustainability

A variety of factors, including the launch of new satellites, the collision of existing satellites, and the abandonment of old satellites are resulting in space debris and orbital congestion38—that is the increasing amounts of debris and satellites in Earth’s orbit. Specifically, the launch of new satellites has greatly contributed to the problem of space congestion. According to LeoLabs, a company that tracks satellites and space debris, there are over 6,000 active satellites rotating around Earth as of the end of 2022.39 Another major contributor to debris is the collision of existing satellites. The 2009 collision between the Iridium 33 and Cosmos-2251 satellites is a notable example.40

Space debris includes anything inactive or uncontrolled that is orbiting the Earth—from defunct satellites and spent rocket stages to fragments of broken spacecraft and small debris, such as screws and bolts, that is orbiting the Earth. According to the ESA, about 2 trillion pieces of debris are 0.1 millimeters (mm) in size and 128 million pieces of debris are of 1 mm in size.41 These include non-man-made pieces of debris, such as micrometeorites. Space debris management can be a “need of the hour” for the industry due to expectations of rapidly increasing spacecraft launches in the near future.

This growing space debris poses several threats, but the biggest is to operational satellites. Collisions with debris can damage or destroy active spacecraft in orbit, leading to service disruptions for telecommunications, nigation, and other critical applications. The accumulation of space debris could lead to a phenomenon known as the “Kessler Syndrome” in which the density of debris in orbit becomes so high that collisions between debris objects create even more debris resulting in a self-sustaining cycle of collisions.42 This could make certain orbits unusable for generations and may hinder the continued use of space. Advanced technologies such as AI and ML can help in predicting the satellite and debris position with greater accuracy.

Governments and industry are responsible for tracking space debris and protecting space-based assets and the environment. They could consider measures to mitigate these threats, such as:

Active debris removal: Removing debris objects. Airbus has initiated a project called RemoveDEBRIS, in which an experimental satellite is currently in-orbit removing active debris.43Use of “end-of-life” disposal maneuvers for satellites: Satellites are deliberately deorbited at the end of their operational life to reduce the risk of them becoming debris. National security space

The importance of space for national security and the global economy has made space a critical domain for broader strategic competition. This has driven governments to invest in space capabilities that offer greater operational resilience and capability.44

This increased competition is resulting in advancements in technology and a growing market for some space-based products and services. Specifically, there is growing demand for space-based assets and technologies for national security purposes including the use of satellites for reconnaissance, nigation, and communication. Moreover, 98% of senior executives in the survey said that growing commercial launches will benefit military users by enabling capabilities at a lower cost.45

Today, space for national security is not just limited to advanced militaries—many countries are investing in their own space capabilities to improve their national security.46 The House Armed Services Committee’s subcommittee on strategic forces in June 2022 passed proposals for the Fiscal Year 2023 National Defense Authorization Act.47 The strategic forces panel, which covers military space, missile defense, and nuclear weapons policy and programs, advocated for increased use of commercial space technology and data from commercial satellites.48 As a result, militaries may be likely to increase their buying of the best off-the-shelf technology and to partner with commercial firms to invent new technology. In this way, companies could capitalize on renewed demand from governments who are eager to leverage space to protect their nation’s security.

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